China’s rapidly expanding nuclear power program, a cornerstone of its energy strategy, is facing increasing scrutiny from within its own military. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is raising concerns about the vulnerability of these plants in the event of a future conflict, potentially reshaping the country’s defense and energy policies.
The Nuclear Build-Up: A Source of Pride and Concern
China has become a global leader in nuclear energy, boasting more operational and under-construction commercial reactors than any other nation. Fueled by advanced technology, strong government support, and strategic international partnerships, the country aims to reach 200 GW of nuclear power by 2035 and have nuclear energy account for at least 15% of its electricity generation by 2050. This ambitious plan includes building approximately 150 new reactors over the next 15 years, requiring an estimated investment of $370–440 billion.
However, this rapid expansion has sparked worries within the PLA, particularly given the concentration of these plants along the coast, including in geopolitically sensitive areas like the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
PLA Warns of Potential Catastrophe
A recent PLA study, led by associate professor Wang Fengshan, highlights the risk of these nuclear plants becoming “high-value targets for adversaries in war, armed conflict or terrorist attacks”. Published in the Chinese defense technology journal Command Control and Simulation, the study argues that such attacks could lead to catastrophic consequences.
The researchers warn of potential “strategic bomber strikes” or “nuclear missile attacks,” evaluating the consequences, including:
- Casualty tolls from direct strikes or nuclear leaks.
- Severe plant damage, including the destruction of reactors, turbine islands, safety systems, and support infrastructure.
- Large-scale nuclear contamination, polluting land, water, agriculture, and marine ecosystems, endangering populations.
Ukraine War: A Wake-Up Call
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has served as a stark reminder that civilian nuclear plants are not immune to military strikes. Repeated attacks on Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, have defied international norms and raised concerns about the potential for a nuclear disaster.
This has prompted Chinese military researchers to re-evaluate the security risks to their own nuclear facilities and propose enhanced defenses and emergency response strategies. They recognize that the long-held belief that attacking nuclear facilities would trigger nuclear retaliation may no longer hold true.
Floating Reactors: A Risky Proposition?
China’s ambition extends beyond land-based reactors. The country has been developing floating nuclear power plants to support its claims in the South China Sea. These mobile platforms, described as small plants inside ships acting as “power banks” at sea, would supply electricity to stationary facilities and other ships.
However, this plan has been met with criticism and concern from the U.S. military and neighboring countries. Admiral John Aquilino, former commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, stated that their development would undermine regional security and stability. The Philippines has also voiced concerns, arguing that China would use these reactors to power military bases on artificial islands within its exclusive economic zone, further militarizing the disputed areas.
Analysts also point to the potential for radiation leaks, especially given China’s limited experience in operating such floating reactors. In the event of conflict, these floating reactors could become vulnerable military targets, posing a significant risk of nuclear accidents.
Strengthening Defenses and International Cooperation
In light of these concerns, China is taking steps to enhance the safety and security of its nuclear facilities. This includes upgrading security systems, implementing stricter regulations, and improving emergency response capabilities.
China also emphasizes international cooperation in nuclear safety and security, actively supporting the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and promoting peaceful uses of nuclear energy. They have strengthened nuclear safety collaboration with countries like Saudi Arabia, focusing on knowledge sharing, infrastructure development, and the application of green technologies.
The Risk of Proliferation
Beyond the immediate threat of military attacks, experts have raised concerns about the potential for nuclear proliferation linked to China’s expanding nuclear program, particularly in regions like Africa. Factors such as political instability, terrorism, and “brain drain” could increase the risk of fissionable material falling into the wrong hands. War can disrupt safeguards regulating nuclear materials and hinder IAEA inspections. Additionally, theft of fissionable material by terrorist groups is a significant concern.
Balancing Energy Needs with Security Imperatives
China faces a complex challenge in balancing its growing energy needs with the imperative to secure its nuclear facilities. While nuclear power is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality and reducing reliance on fossil fuels, the potential consequences of a nuclear accident in wartime are immense.
The PLA’s concerns highlight the need for a comprehensive approach that includes:
- Investing in robust defense systems to protect nuclear plants from attack.
- Strengthening emergency response plans to mitigate the impact of potential accidents.
- Enhancing international cooperation to promote nuclear safety and prevent proliferation.
- Carefully considering the risks associated with deploying floating nuclear reactors in contested areas.
Ultimately, the future of China’s nuclear power program will depend on its ability to address these security challenges and ensure the safety and security of its nuclear facilities in an increasingly complex and uncertain world.
